AGI Timeline — Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner) + the Deployment Brake
conceptAI & Compute · The Blackmail Network
The famous 'AGI by 2027' bet — and the study that says slow down.
Who they are
Leopold Aschenbrenner (the Situational Awareness essay), checked against McKinsey and METR.
What they do
He argues machines hit human-level intelligence around 2027 and automate most work soon after. The money side is real and even bigger than he said ($5-8 trillion in data centers by 2030). But a controlled study found developers were actually 19% SLOWER using AI while feeling 20% faster — so 'all jobs gone in five years' is hype; more like 2029-2032.
How it works
Follow the trend lines in computing power and efficiency for the 'yes'; watch real-world deployment (not test scores) for the reality check.
Why it matters
It's the timeline under the whole automation story — and it feeds the 'life is already a rigged lottery' reading: when work disappears, the sorting machine underneath stops being hidden.
The engine's record — word for word
**In plain terms:** the dated AGI-forecast spine the engine had no node for. Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness (2024) argues AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible, extrapolating compute (~0.5 orders-of-magnitude/year) plus algorithmic efficiency plus 'unhobbling' toward a drop-in remote worker, then an intelligence explosion (2028-2030) and a national-security 'Project'[1]. SUBSTRATE CHECK (the money is real and exceeded): McKinsey projects roughly $6.7 trillion of worldwide data-center capex by 2030 — about $5.2 trillion for AI workloads, up to $7.9 trillion in the accelerated scenario[2]. THE BRAKE (capability is not deployment): METR's 2025 randomized controlled trial found experienced open-source developers were about 19% SLOWER using AI tools, while believing they were ~20% faster — an illusion-vs-reality gap[3]; agentic organizational absorption lags the benchmark curve. Held forceful dated lean: the DIRECTION (labor automation) is credible; 'all jobs in five years' is forecast-inflated, adjusted median ~2029-2032. Feeds the sorting-state/lottery reading (see maxwells_demon_sorting_state) — automation strips the meritocracy camouflage over the sort. Name no holder.
Follow the trail
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