World3 BAU2
frameworkBiotech & Transhumanism
A famous 1970s doomsday model was updated, and real-world data now tracks the pollution-collapse path, not the one everyone remembers.
Who they are
World3 BAU2, a scenario from a 2020 update by researcher Herrington to the classic 'Limits to Growth' computer model[1].
What they do
It is the specific model path that real-world data has actually been following.
How it works
The update found that empirical data tracks the 'BAU2' scenario (collapse driven by pollution) and the technology-cost scenario, rather than the original path driven by running out of resources, pointing to an industrial plateau around the 2030s.
Why it matters
It matters because it refines the old collapse forecast, showing the likely squeeze comes from pollution and cost, not simple scarcity, and puts a rough date on the plateau.
The engine's record — word for word
Herrington 2020 correction. Empirical data tracks BAU2 (pollution-driven collapse) and CT (technology cost), NOT original BAU (resource scarcity). Industrial plateau ~2030s. [Polar-Biosecurity brief 2026-08] Held DESCRIPTIVE: the World3 BAU2 run models pollution-driven overshoot-and-decline with NO sterilization/allocation/racialized-culling prescription in the model itself — the eugenic bridge is reader-projection UNLESS a policy layer instrumentalizes the projection, which NSSM-200 and the Club of Rome degrowth doctrine documentably do. Wired world3_bau2->club_of_rome_degrowth (feeds) to hold the model and the doctrine that USES it as SEPARATE objects, never collapsed into 'the model is a culling plan.'
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