◉ PSYCHOHISTORY

Gaya Herrington

player
A corporate sustainability director checked a famous 1970s doomsday model against real data and found we're tracking the collapse scenario.
Who they are

Gaya Herrington, a Harvard-trained KPMG Director of Sustainability Services and now a Club of Rome member.

What they do

In the engine she is the analyst who revived and validated the old 'Limits to Growth' collapse modeling with modern figures.

How it works

Her peer-reviewed 2020 update in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology compared today's data to the 1972 World3 model and found that resources are more abundant than assumed but pollution is worse, so real-world data tracks the pollution-driven 'BAU2' collapse path — with industrial output per person peaking in the late 2020s and declining by 2030-2040 — and the paper went viral.

Why it matters

It matters because a mainstream corporate risk expert, not a fringe activist, confirmed that current data lines up with a collapse scenario, giving the old warnings fresh credibility.

The engine's record — word for word
KPMG Director of Sustainability Services. Harvard. Published 2020 BAU2 update in Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology (peer-reviewed). Critical correction: resources more abundant than 1972 assumed, but pollution worse. Empirical data tracks BAU2 (pollution-driven collapse) not BAU1 (resource scarcity). Industrial output per capita peaks late 2020s, decline by 2030-2040. Paper went viral, rehabilitating World3. Now Club of Rome member. Corporate risk assessors validated collapse modeling.
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