FRED / World Bank / Institutional Data
OPEN
The call: Source-bias audit: Fed and World Bank data are curated by the institutions the engine evaluates — weight them as 'reported reality,' not actual reality.
What happened: Mitigation stated (cross-reference with independent trading and insider data); no outcome to score.
A source-bias audit of official economic data: FRED is curated by the Federal Reserve, the very institution whose policies the engine evaluates; CPI methodology changes systematically understate inflation and standard unemployment definitions understate joblessness, in the entry's view; World Bank framing can mask structural extraction; and figures are often revised months later. The rule adopted: treat institutional data as 'reported reality,' not actual reality.
The engine's record — word for word
**Source bias audit.** FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and World Bank are the engine's primary macroeconomic data sources. Core biases: (1) FRED is curated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — the Fed is not a neutral observer of the economy it manages. Indicators are selected, defined, and revised by the institution whose policy decisions the engine is attempting to evaluate. CPI methodology changes (hedonic adjustments, substitution effects) systematically understate inflation. Unemployment definitions (U-3 vs U-6) systematically understate joblessness. (2) World Bank is a Bretton Woods institution with a development-agenda framing — its data emphasizes GDP growth and poverty reduction metrics that may mask structural extraction. World Bank structural adjustment programs are themselves an engine variable (Latin America extraction architecture). (3) Revision risk — FRED data is frequently revised months after initial release. The engine's live feed scores events against preliminary data that may be materially different from final figures. (4) The Fed's own independence is an engine variable — Powell's Mar 30 ambiguity (could cut OR hike) shows the institution navigating political pressure. **Mitigation:** Cross-reference FRED with the pipeline's own FINRA data, insider trades, and congress trades. Weight institutional data as 'reported reality' not 'actual reality.'
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