He had the population doubling twice as fast as it did
Didn't hold up
Paulson 1978 — world population 8 billion by 2000 and 16 billion by 2020
MISS
The call · 15 Nov 2022: Paulson, 1978: "The World's population is now at 4 billion and will hit 8 billion by the year 2000 and will leap to 16 billion the year 2020."
What happened: The United Nations marked 15 November 2022 as the day the population was projected to reach 8 billion — 22 years after Paulson's date for it, and his 16 billion for 2020 is roughly double the real figure.
He expected the world to hold eight billion people by 2000 and sixteen billion by 2020. The UN marked eight billion as projected for 15 November 2022, which is twenty-two years later than he said, and nothing like sixteen billion had arrived by 2020. The direction was right and the speed was wrong by a factor of two.
The engine's record — word for word
Paulson 1978, scan lines 8507-8508. Checked against the United Nations' own Day of 8 Billion page, which states that 'On 15 November 2022, the world's population is projected to reach 8 billion people' — the UN's word is projected, not measured. Scored MISS on both legs: the 8 billion date is 22 years late against his forecast, and the 16 billion figure for 2020 is roughly twice the recorded level. This is the leg of his argument that carries the famine and resource-war scenario, so the error propagates into everything downstream of it in the book.
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