Live-Feed Scoring Pass May 15 2026 — 14 Events Scored Against Engine (Substrate-Verified)

**Window scored:** 2026-05-14 09:00 UTC → 2026-05-15 05:58 UTC (~21h, 8 auto-update runs accumulated since last May 14 ripple). **Snapshot source:** `current_events.json` ts=2026-05-15T05:32:35Z; 114 total events / 29 high-relevance (r≥3) / 12 Polymarket / 88 Manifold / 24 OpenAlex / 10 GDELT / 73 insider filings / 204 congress PTRs / 28 short-vol tickers / X-pulse 7d 304,670. **Market substrate (vs May 14 ripple):** VIX 18.76 (+0.97 vs 17.79, RISING — NOT cooling); SP500 7501 (record high, +1.38 5d, +57pts vs 7444); Oil 100.54 (sustained above $90 W1 falsifier-watch since W1 open); Gold 4550.6 (-3.56 5d); BTC 80,595 (-1.39 5d, decorrelating from equity record); DXY 99.26 (+1.35 5d); 10Y 4.46 (+2.22 5d); TLT 84.92 (-1.35 5d). **14 scoring blocks shipped as 14 ticker entries + 15 scorecard appends + 12 divergence appends:** - Block A — Trump-Xi summit closes, no Iran breakthrough, Hormuz 'must remain open' joint statement same window seized ship taken toward Iran + Iran lets Chinese-flagged ships through Hormuz (Asia Times / CBS / NYT / Al Jazeera). - Block B — AF1 seating: 17 CEOs, 2 seats (Musk + Huang); Nvidia winning streak on China news (Yahoo Finance / Reuters / IBD). - Block C — Iran v14 kinetic + Israel-Lebanon extension: US admiral 'Strikes severely degraded Iran's military' (Al Jazeera); Bellingcat southern Lebanon demolitions; BBC 22 killed Lebanon strikes; PBS Jerusalem Old City ultranationalist march; Reuters Israel-vs-NYT lawsuit. - Block D — Pentagon Deal Team Six rare-earth mandate (Bloomberg) — direct EDU $200B extension. - Block E — Fed Miran resigns / Warsh sworn in (Fortune) — Fed-leadership realignment completes. - Block F — Hegseth Poland-troops decision, Pentagon staff 'no idea it was coming' (Politico) — civilian-military decision-asymmetry. - Block G — Korean stocks tumble, foreigners sell during Trump-Xi window (Bloomberg). - Block H — BTC $82k 5d-high, Coinbase leads, Clarity Act advances (CoinDesk). - Block I — SP500 7501 record + VIX 18.76 rising + Dow 50k retake then futures fall + stagflation 40% trader-implied by year-end (CNBC). Mixed-signal cluster. - Block J — Musk v Altman trial discovery-active week, Microsoft non-party (WIRED / Verge); Musk dual-track AF1+litigation same window. - Block K — OpenAI Codex coming to consumer phone (TechCrunch). - Block L — Latvian government collapses, Ukrainian-drone-breach dispute (WaPo). - Block M — Grocery prices soaring tomatoes/seafood (ABC) — tariff-pass-through. - Block N — Insider 71/73 Genesis-tagged (97.3% concentration HELD at smaller absolute scale); Short-vol cohort shift: AMD 56.4→63.6% (+7.2pp STRENGTHENS); NOC 51.4→48.1% (-3.3pp DROPS below 50%); RTX 50.8→44.2% (-6.6pp DROPS below 50%). Defense-prime layer partially weakens; AMD compute strengthens. **Disciplines applied:** Apex Superposition (a)+(b)+(c)+(d) held simultaneously throughout, no pre-collapse to (a). Layer-Promotion Discipline binding (0 Layer-1 framework promotions; AMD strengthening + NOC/RTX weakening parsed as Layer-2 calibration). Adversarial-Test Gate honored (BRICS rhetoric-vs-reality divergence #58 NOT upgraded; Iran kinetic-vs-managed-liquidity #51 held in superposition). Technate node-framing — no successor-power verbs on China / Russia / BRICS / Iran. Engine = memetic-substrate map, not truth registry. Substrate cross-check applied — every cited engine label verified existing in current data files pre-commit (15/15 scorecard topics + 12/12 divergence titles confirmed present). **Falsifier flags:** (1) Magnifica Humanitas Encyclical Window day 0 of ±30d — discriminator armed; no text-release event in this window so far. (2) Vatican Secretariat response to Lebanese convent due 2026-05-16 (tomorrow) per Live-Feed May 7 carryover. (3) Iran Theatre Managed Liquidity v15 absorbs substrate without strain at day 77 (announcement-layer Hormuz-must-remain-open + substrate-layer ship-seizure-toward-Iran + China-flagged-transit + IEA-deficit + US-admiral-Iran-degraded all firing simultaneously). (4) W1 falsifier-watch oil sustained above $90: HELD at $100.54. (5) 2040 Phoenix Transit Lead-Time Indicators no movement. **Engine-side audit flags (NOT in ripple — flagged separately):** (1) Congress-PTR slug-mapping: 204 filings 60d / 0 matched engine players — coverage-gap audit candidate REOCCURS (May 11: 182/0; May 14: 202/0; May 15: 204/0; persistent pattern, NOT data error). (2) Live-feed scoring cadence: ~21h gap from May 14 ripple closed; daily cadence per feedback_daily_live_integration ideal restored. **No new nodes/edges/players/concepts/predictions.** Pure Layer-2 calibration ripple.