Recep Tayyip Erdogan / Turkey [UPDATED]
Hinge State — High-Autonomy Volatility Amplifier
Turkey can't be reduced to a NATO ally or an adversary. It controls the Bosphorus strait — the only passage from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It bought Russian missile systems, got expelled from the F-35 program, ran unilateral military operations, and weaponized refugees. The engine tracks Turkey as a hinge that swings whichever way maximizes leverage.
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