Interconnection Queue Attrition — 13% Built, 75% Withdrawn, Median Over Five Years
mechanism
Only about one in eight projects that join the queue ever gets built.
Who they are
The historical attrition rate in the US interconnection queue[1].
What they do
It's the number that tells you what a queue figure is actually worth.
How it works
Of everything that applied between 2000 and 2020, just 13% had reached operation by the end of 2025. 75% was withdrawn outright; 10% is still waiting. For things that did get built in 2025, the median wait was over five years[1].
Why it matters
A gigawatt in the queue is not a gigawatt coming. Every headline queue number in the engine should be read through this. Whether the new rules change the rate is untested — that cohort predates them.
The engine's record — word for word
The numbers that give the queue its meaning. For projects that submitted interconnection requests between 2000 and 2020, only 13% of capacity had reached commercial operations by the end of 2025; 75% of that capacity had been withdrawn and 10% remained active[1]. For projects built in 2025, the median duration from interconnection request to commercial operation was over five years in regions with available data, per the same briefing. CONSEQUENCE FOR EVERY QUEUE FIGURE THE ENGINE HOLDS: a gigawatt in the queue is not a gigawatt coming — on this historical base rate roughly one in eight arrives, and the wait exceeds half a decade. Applies to grid_collision's headline totals and to any forecast built on them. Held as a base rate, not a prediction: the 2000-2020 cohort predates FERC Order 2023's readiness requirements (ferc_order_2023_cluster_reform), and whether the rate changes under the new regime is open.
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