◉ PSYCHOHISTORY

Indonesia Nickel Leverage

mechanism
The metal that powers your phone and electric car comes mostly from one country — but the mines there are largely run by Chinese companies.
Who they are

Indonesia's nickel industry, which holds about 42% of the world's known nickel and made 54% of global supply in 2023 (heading toward 62% by 2025).

What they do

It is the raw-material backbone for electric-vehicle batteries and electronics, and Indonesia used a policy lever to force that value to stay at home.

How it works

In 2020 Indonesia banned exporting raw nickel ore, which pushed processing inside the country and produced $30 billion in refined-nickel exports in 2024 — but more than 75% of that production is controlled by Chinese firms like Tsingshan and Jiangsu Delon.

Why it matters

The strange twist: a strategy meant to hold China at arm's length actually leaves the mineral supply dependent on the very country it was trying to limit.

The engine's record — word for word
42% global nickel reserves, 54% production (2023), projected 62% (2025). 2020 ore export ban forced domestic processing — $30B refined nickel exports (2024). Critical for EV batteries and electronics. But 75%+ production controlled by Chinese conglomerates (Tsingshan, Jiangsu Delon). The containment arc mineral floor is paradoxically dependent on the entity it contains.
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