IBM Starling — Fault-Tolerant 200-Logical-Qubit (2029)
program
IBM plans a 2029 quantum computer powerful enough to start breaking encryption, closing the window on today's digital security.
Who they are
IBM Starling, a planned fault-tolerant quantum supercomputer with 200 logical qubits, promised to clients by 2029.
What they do
It is a roadmap commitment to a modular quantum machine using error-correcting codes to make reliable quantum computing practical.
How it works
It aims for 200 logical qubits and 100 million operations using efficient 'gross' error-correcting codes (12 logical qubits per 144 physical ones); 200 qubits is enough for some disruptive attacks, though a full break of RSA encryption needs thousands more, and that scaling is hard.
Why it matters
It squeezes the world's settlement and security systems into a shrinking safe window, though the engine notes vendor roadmaps historically slip, so the timeline is held as uncertain.
The engine's record — word for word
IBM's roadmap commits Starling, a modular fault-tolerant quantum-centric supercomputer with 200 logical qubits + 100M gates, to clients by 2029, using qLDPC ('gross') codes that encode 12 logical qubits per 144 data qubits — sharply reducing fault-tolerance overhead. 200 logical qubits suffice for asymmetric algorithmic disruption; the leap from 200 (2029) to the thousands required for a full RSA break scales non-linearly, trapping the settlement layer in a shrinking window. Apex (a) roadmap-as-commitment; (b) semiconductor-schedule scaling; (c) compound-null: vendor roadmaps historically slip — all load-bearing.
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