'Elite overproduction,' a concept from historian Peter Turchin.
It describes having more credentialed power-seekers than there are positions of power for them.
According to Turchin, this surplus drives fighting within the elite and worsening conditions for ordinary people, which the engine ties to a peak of social breakdown in the 2020s.
It's offered as a driver of instability — too many people competing for too few spots at the top fractures the whole society.