CSIS Lights Out Wargames
artifactNations & Geopolitics · Defense & Military-Industrial
War games run 26 times showed a Chinese blockade of Taiwan leaves the US with only two bad options: fight directly or surrender the island.
Who they are
The CSIS 'Lights Out' wargames, 26 simulations of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan run in 2025.
What they do
The engine treats these as models exposing an escalation trap with no easy middle path.
How it works
The games showed a coast guard quarantine halting shipping through uninsurable risk, then submarines and mines creating an exclusion zone that would deplete Taiwan's liquefied natural gas in 10 days; unlike Ukraine, arming Taiwan is not enough because a blockade chokes the island, so every intervention scenario escalated into wider war including US strikes on the Chinese mainland and Chinese strikes on Japanese bases.
Why it matters
It matters because the war games reveal that a blockade does not avoid war, it just delays open fighting by weeks while guaranteeing the destruction of supply chains.
The engine's record — word for word
26 iterations modeling Chinese blockade of Taiwan (2025). Level 1: coast guard quarantine halts commercial shipping via uninsurable risk. Level 2: submarines and mines create exclusion zone, LNG depletes in 10 days. The escalation trap: no Ukraine model for Taiwan — providing weapons is insufficient because blockade chokes the island. US must intervene directly or accept capitulation. Every intervention iteration escalated to wider war including US strikes on mainland and PLA strikes on Japan bases. A blockade does not prevent war — it delays kinetic exchange by weeks while guaranteeing supply chain destruction.
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