Turchin SDT (Structural-Demographic Theory)
Idea
Peter Turchin's quantitative framework for predicting political instability: trouble compounds when three things coincide — too many elite aspirants competing for too few elite positions, declining wages and living standards for the general population, and a government that cannot cover its obligations. Published in 2010, the model predicted US instability peaking in the 2020s, and this project uses it as one of its 8 independent frameworks.
The engine's definition — word for word
Peter Turchin's quantitative framework for predicting political instability. Three variables compound: (1) Elite overproduction — too many people competing for too few elite positions (law school graduates, PhD holders, aspiring politicians). (2) Popular immiseration — declining real wages, rising costs, reduced quality of life for the general population. (3) State fiscal crisis — government revenue fails to cover obligations. When all three compound simultaneously, the result is a 'turbulent period' of civil unrest, political violence, and institutional failure. Turchin's model predicted US instability peaking in the 2020s (published 2010). The engine integrates Turchin as one of its 8 independent frameworks, and his variables are tracked across the scorecard.
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