Turchin SDT (Structural-Demographic Theory)

Peter Turchin's quantitative framework for predicting political instability. Three variables compound: (1) Elite overproduction — too many people competing for too few elite positions (law school graduates, PhD holders, aspiring politicians). (2) Popular immiseration — declining real wages, rising costs, reduced quality of life for the general population. (3) State fiscal crisis — government revenue fails to cover obligations. When all three compound simultaneously, the result is a 'turbulent period' of civil unrest, political violence, and institutional failure. Turchin's model predicted US instability peaking in the 2020s (published 2010). The engine integrates Turchin as one of its 8 independent frameworks, and his variables are tracked across the scorecard. [Live pass Oct 6 2026] ~2026-08-18 ("as of Tuesday") — Total US government debt hit $40.05 trillion, about four and a half years after topping $30 trillion. (1 source) (cnbc.com) | 2026-09-11 — US August CPI: annual rate 3.4%, same as July and in line with forecasts; prices +0.4% m/m after +0.1%. Diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time. (tradingeconomics.com ; aljazeera.com ; theguardian.com) | 2026-09-11 — CBO: federal deficit reached $2tn in the first 11 months of fiscal 2026 (Fox Business; release date not fixed). (1 source) (foxbusiness.com) | 2026-09-14 — US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% on Monday 14 Sep; on Tuesday 15 Sep it reached 5.041% (Guardian) / 5.02% (Al Jazeera), highest since 2007; German 10-year peaked at 3.554% on Monday. (theguardian.com ; theguardian.com ; aljazeera.com) | 2026-09-29 — US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014 (Conference Board index deteriorated in September). (aljazeera.com ; theguardian.com) | 2026-10-01 — US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34% (CNBC intraday 5.344%), highest since 2002; UK 30-year yield hit 6% for the first time since 1998; FTSE 100 fell almost 1.7%. (theguardian.com ; cnbc.com)