Single-Point-of-Control Architecture (Federal Services)
Idea
A precise definition of when one contractor effectively controls a federal program: over 40% market share, prime contracts across three or more unrelated program areas, and more than 12 months needed to replace it without service disruption. One company meets all three tests at Medicare's phone and enrollment systems — where a 2024 federal lawsuit forced the government to abandon an early rebid — but falls below the cutoffs in student loans and veterans' exams; the point is to distinguish true capture from the more common pattern of a few entrenched players.
The engine's definition — word for word
Report #86 operationalized definition. A single contractor constitutes single-point-of-control architecture for a federal program category when ALL THREE empirical thresholds are met: (a) per-program market share exceeding 40%; (b) cross-program prime contract holdings across three or more unrelated Assistance Listings; (c) substitutability friction exceeding 12 months for an agency to transition to a competitor without service disruption. Maximus meets all three thresholds at CMS 1-800-MEDICARE + Healthcare.gov (100% / multi-program / >24mo friction proven by 2024 federal lawsuit forcing CMS to abandon early rebid). Maximus FAILS the threshold in Aidvantage student loans (25% — below the 40% cutoff) and VA MDE (~30% — below the cutoff). **Engine framing:** distinguishes true monopolistic capture from oligopolistic structural-recurrence — the latter is the more common pattern across the federal-services-throughput layer.
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