Persistence Index (Defense-Family-Dynasty Quantification)
Idea
A score for how long a family dynasty held onto defense-industry power: the fraction of eight decades (1947-2026) in which it held at least one top contractor-board, Pentagon, or defense-banking position. Bechtel scores 1.00 (8/8) and the Crown and Bush networks 0.87 (7/8); top defense families average 0.82 against a 0.45 baseline elsewhere — a 1.85× ratio used to argue that defense dynasties endure in a way ordinary business fortunes, which usually dissipate within 2-3 generations, do not.
The engine's definition — word for word
Report #87 H1 metric. Number of decades (out of 8: 1947-1956 / 1957-1966 / 1967-1976 / 1977-1986 / 1987-1996 / 1997-2006 / 2007-2016 / 2017-2026) in which a named family/dynasty held ≥1 position in the defense-industrial leadership corpus (top-10 prime contractor boards + top-5 DoD civilian appointments + top-5 Wall Street defense-banking positions per decade). Index = decades_present / 8. **Engine values:** Bechtel Family 1.00 (8/8). Crown Family 0.87 (7/8). Bush Network 0.87 (7/8). Carlucci Network 0.62 (5/8). Augustine Network 0.50 (4/8). **Top-decile defense average 0.82 vs non-defense baseline 0.45 = 1.85× ratio.** Threshold structure: top-decile ≥6/8 AND ≥2× baseline = thesis-aligned; 4-5/8 OR 1.5-2× = partial; ≤3/8 OR <1.5× = thesis-falsifying. Report #87 result lands at 1.85× — between 1.5 and 2.0 in absolute terms, but most individual top-decile families exceed both thresholds (Bechtel + Crown + Bush all ≥7/8 decades). Engine framing: this is the canonical empirical instrument for quantifying defense-family-dynasty endurance distinct from civilian-sector dynastic patterns, where market-driven creative destruction routinely dissipates dynastic wealth across 2-3 generations.
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