Documented Reflexivity Catalog — Naming-Instantiates vs Speculative Predictive-Programming [Report #125]

In plain terms: 'naming a thing helps make it happen' is true in specific, DOCUMENTED ways and false as a blanket 'predictive-programming' claim. This catalog separates the two. DOCUMENTED reflexive mechanisms: Merton self-fulfilling prophecy (a false belief a solvent bank is failing -> panic withdrawals -> the bank actually fails); Rosenthal-Jacobson 'Pygmalion' (labeling random students 'bloomers' raised their measured IQ via teacher behavior); Soros reflexivity (biased market perception alters the real fundamentals it claims to read -> boom/bust); Campbell's Law (a metric used for high-stakes decisions gets gamed and corrupts what it measures); Lucas Critique (forward-looking agents change their decision rules once a policy is named, breaking the historical correlation); Operation Trust 1921-27 (Soviet GPU fabricated a fake monarchist resistance — 'trust the plan' narrative pacification — to neutralize real opposition); Roko's Basilisk / Streisand (suppressing a named infohazard amplified it). SPECULATIVE (held separate, not promoted): blanket 'predictive programming' / 'they always telegraph the plan and it magically instantiates' — non-falsifiable, not a documented mechanism. Companion to (does NOT modify) the parked Divergence 'Predictive-Narrative-Architecture' #174. Source: Report #125.