Named for a US admiral who testified in 2021 that China could move on Taiwan by 2027, this refers to the 2027-2028 period when several pressures are described as converging: China's military modernization peaking, its shrinking pool of military-age people closing its window to act, US forces tied up in the Middle East, and the world's dependence on Taiwan for 92% of the most advanced chips. It matters as the moment of maximum simultaneous vulnerability tracked across multiple predictions here.
Named after Admiral Philip Davidson, former commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, who testified to Congress in 2021 that China could attempt to take Taiwan 'in the next six years' (by 2027). The Davidson Window refers to the 2027-2028 period when multiple variables converge to create maximum US vulnerability: (1) PLA modernization reaches key capability thresholds, (2) China's demographic window for military action begins closing (shrinking military-age population), (3) US military resources are committed to the Middle East (now confirmed with Iran war), (4) TSMC dependency (92% of sub-7nm chips) creates maximum economic leverage. The engine tracks the Davidson Window as the intersection of the Taiwan overextension scenario with the Iran theater commitment — the dual-front vulnerability that multiple scorecard rows reference. [Live pass Oct 6 2026] 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-02 — US and Iran exchanged fire for first time in a month. Iran: US strike on Sirik wedding killed at least four including two children (Al Jazeera); Iran struck US targets in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain. (
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fortune.com) | 2026-09-03 — Iran's military: strike targeted US air bases Ahmad Al Jaber (Kuwait), Al Minhad (UAE). France 24: Iran called it retaliation for US wedding-party strike killing four; Kuwait: "grave breach of the rules of international law". (
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france24.com) | 2026-09-05 — Jerusalem Post: US said it struck and destroyed three Iranian oil tankers September 5. CENTCOM/The Hill: M/T Downy and M/T Stark 1 "permanently disabled", unladen M/T Kylo destroyed, after Iran's strikes on US Navy vessels. (
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thehill.com) | 2026-09-08 — AP/NPR: Jordan's military intercepted 18 ballistic missiles launched toward its territory; two others fell in uninhabited places. CENTCOM/Politico: CENTCOM destroyed five IRGC tankers after Iran twice targeted a US Navy ship. (
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politico.com) | 2026-09-15 (pub.) — The CBO estimates the Iran war has cost approximately $38 billion through August 1. (1 source) (
cnn.com) | 2026-09-30 (Wednesday) — AP/PBS: US military announced Wednesday completed withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq. Al Jazeera: Pentagon said remaining troops made "orderly departure" from Erbil Airbase. France 24: pullout agreed under former president Joe Biden. (
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