Davidson Window (2027-2028)
Idea
Named for a US admiral who testified in 2021 that China could move on Taiwan by 2027, this refers to the 2027-2028 period when several pressures are described as converging: China's military modernization peaking, its shrinking pool of military-age people closing its window to act, US forces tied up in the Middle East, and the world's dependence on Taiwan for 92% of the most advanced chips. It matters as the moment of maximum simultaneous vulnerability tracked across multiple predictions here.
The engine's definition — word for word
Named after Admiral Philip Davidson, former commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, who testified to Congress in 2021 that China could attempt to take Taiwan 'in the next six years' (by 2027). The Davidson Window refers to the 2027-2028 period when multiple variables converge to create maximum US vulnerability: (1) PLA modernization reaches key capability thresholds, (2) China's demographic window for military action begins closing (shrinking military-age population), (3) US military resources are committed to the Middle East (now confirmed with Iran war), (4) TSMC dependency (92% of sub-7nm chips) creates maximum economic leverage. The engine tracks the Davidson Window as the intersection of the Taiwan overextension scenario with the Iran theater commitment — the dual-front vulnerability that multiple scorecard rows reference.
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