A scenario from the 1972 Limits to Growth computer model in which pollution feedback accelerates decline: industrial output peaks around 2030-2035, followed by agricultural decline and population decrease. A 2021 study (Herrington) found 50 years of real-world data tracked this scenario more closely than any other, so the project treats it as the baseline trajectory if nothing structural changes.
The specific scenario from the Club of Rome's World3 model (Limits to Growth, 1972; validated by Herrington 2021). BAU2 differs from the original BAU scenario by including pollution-driven feedback loops that accelerate collapse. The trajectory: industrial output peaks around 2030-2035, followed by pollution-driven compounding capital stress, agricultural decline, and population decrease. Herrington's 2021 validation found that 50 years of real-world data tracked BAU2 more closely than any other World3 scenario. The engine treats BAU2 as the baseline 'physics of the system' — the trajectory that plays out if no intervention changes the structural dynamics. The current Iran war energy cascade (oil $103, fertilizer crisis, food supply disruption) is tracking the BAU2 energy→food→social stability failure chain. [Live pass Oct 6 2026] 2026-09-09 — 9 Sep: Brent settled +3.4% at $101.21, highest close since May 22; WTI $96.05; Dutch gas €78.73/MWh. 10 Sep: Brent spiked to $109.20 (Al Jazeera); WTI topped $100, first since May. (
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theguardian.com) | 2026-09-10 — WTI rose 6.7% to settle at $102.48, its highest since May 19, and Brent rose 6.3% to $107.63. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points, from 2.25% to 2.5%. (1 source) (
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cnbc.com) | 2026-09-11 — US August CPI: annual rate 3.4%, same as July and in line with forecasts; prices +0.4% m/m after +0.1%. Diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time. (
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theguardian.com) | 2026-09-11 — Saudi Arabia temporarily closed its 1,200km East-West oil pipeline after a drone attack on Friday 11 Sep; Brent rose to more than $108.5 on Monday 14 Sep (+3.7%). (
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aljazeera.com) | 2026-09-24 — EU warned against a reported 90-day US diesel export ban being considered by Trump; US diesel reached a record average $6.52 a gallon. (1 source) (
theguardian.com) | 2026-10-02 (Friday) — G7 committed to coordinated IEA release of "100 million barrels to begin immediately over four months, including a frontloaded" diesel release (BBC); Macron: "up to 100 million barrels"; Oilprice: barrels help complete March commitments. (
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oilprice.com) | ~2026-10-05 — Kpler: Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels Sept 24 and Sept 27-29, at 19.5-22.5m bpd; Iran stepped up Hormuz tanker attacks (CNBC 6 Oct); Aramco CEO: global stockpiles could take two years to rebuild. (
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