BAU2 (Business As Usual 2)
Idea
A scenario from the 1972 Limits to Growth computer model in which pollution feedback accelerates decline: industrial output peaks around 2030-2035, followed by agricultural decline and population decrease. A 2021 study (Herrington) found 50 years of real-world data tracked this scenario more closely than any other, so the project treats it as the baseline trajectory if nothing structural changes.
The engine's definition — word for word
The specific scenario from the Club of Rome's World3 model (Limits to Growth, 1972; validated by Herrington 2021). BAU2 differs from the original BAU scenario by including pollution-driven feedback loops that accelerate collapse. The trajectory: industrial output peaks around 2030-2035, followed by pollution-driven compounding capital stress, agricultural decline, and population decrease. Herrington's 2021 validation found that 50 years of real-world data tracked BAU2 more closely than any other World3 scenario. The engine treats BAU2 as the baseline 'physics of the system' — the trajectory that plays out if no intervention changes the structural dynamics. The current Iran war energy cascade (oil $103, fertilizer crisis, food supply disruption) is tracking the BAU2 energy→food→social stability failure chain.
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